Weekly Stock Market Preview – August 12, 2024

What To Expect in the Markets This Week

Inflation Data This Week Could Set Tone After Market Tumult

With stocks stabilizing after last week’s tumultuous trading, investors will shift their focus toward another round of economic data, including July’s consumer price index, which is due out on Wednesday. Any sign of inflation not softening again could send markets on another wild ride.

• Economists expect July’s CPI to rise 3% from one year ago and 0.2% from the prior month. The 3% would be the same as June’s rise, while the monthly gain compares to a 0.1% drop in June. Without food and fuel, annual inflation is expected to rise 3.2%.
• Brian Weinstein, head of global markets at Morgan Stanley Investment Management, told MarketWatch inflation is going to stay higher than the Fed’s 2% target. It is rare for CPI to stay stable below 2%, he said. Economic plans embraced by the candidates for President could keep it above 2%.
• Another inflation report on Tuesday will shed light on the pressures companies are facing. Producer prices for July are expected to rise 2.3% for the year, which is lower than the June reading, and rise 0.2% from the prior month, maintaining the same pace.
• Despite lingering inflation worries, bond investors are taking on more risk. Meta Platforms sold $10.5 billion of investment grade bonds last week, its biggest ever debt sale amid surging demand for high-grade bonds. Last week’s high-grade bond issuance was nearly $45 billion, exceeding expectations.

What’s Next: Traders believe the Federal Reserve could cut interest rates by a full percentage point this year. That implies there could be a half-point cut coming at one of the three remaining policy meetings it has this year. Nearly half of traders see that coming in September, CME’s FedWatch tool said.

—Liz Moyer

Retail Earnings Are Coming Amid Worries About Recession

Big-box retailers are preparing to release second-quarter results, with Home Depot and Walmart kicking things off this week. Retail sales figures for July are also out this week, putting American shoppers in the spotlight as Wall Street economists assess the chances of a recession.

• At least 10 consumer-facing companies have already reported lower growth rates for North American revenue compared with the previous quarter, according to a GlobalData analysis. Core retail sales for July, excluding fuel and autos, are expected to rise 0.1% from June versus a 0.79% gain the prior month.
• Third-party data, including credit- and debit-card spending, also points to more choppy spending trends over the course of the summer. Bank of America economists noted that credit and debit spending per household fell 0.4% in July from the same time a year ago. June saw a drop of 0.5%.
• Earnings have reflected this. People are spending less at amusement parks and stalling on booking their vacation plans until closer to the travel date. Walmart’s second quarter results are expected to highlight new private label offerings and back to school initiatives, UBS analysts said.
• Home Depot is exposed to the housing market, where consumers are navigating high lending rates and limited available options. Sales of items costing $1,000 or more have slipped at the retailer as households put off home projects such as kitchen remodels.

What’s Next: Walmart, the biggest U.S. retailer, is expected to report a gain in earnings per share and revenue for the second quarter, with EPS estimated at 65 cents and revenue of $168.5 billion. Same store sales are expected to rise 3.5% versus 6.3% a year ago, according to FactSet.

—Sabrina Escobar

Stocks to Watch (Earnings)

August 12, 2024:

• Barrick Gold (GOLD) will report premarket with 13,860,153 stock volume and 31,516 call volume. The expected earnings move is $0.74 with an estimated EPS of $0.26.
• Terawulf (WULF) reports postmarket, with 13,520,117 stock volume and 5,982 call volume. The expected earnings move is $0.55 with an estimated EPS of $0.00.
• AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) reports an unknown time with 14,796,162 stock volume and 81,667 call volume. The expected earnings move is $3.38 with an estimated EPS of -$0.19.
• BuzzFeed (BZFD) also reports postmarket with 250,276 stock volume and 809 call volume. The expected earnings move is $0.36.
• Fortrea Holdings (FTRE) reports premarket with 2,012,730 stock volume and 3,714 call volume. The expected earnings move is $3.69 with an estimated EPS of $0.07.

August 13, 2024:

• Nu Holdings (NU) will report postmarket with 40,475,887 stock volume and 23,299 call volume. The expected earnings move is $0.93 with an estimated EPS of $0.10.
• SEA (SE) reports premarket with 4,375,514 stock volume and 8,020 call volume. The expected earnings move is $6.93 with an estimated EPS of $0.28.
• Li Auto (LI) reporting time is unknown, with 3,394,099 stock volume and 6,761 call volume. The expected earnings move is $0.94.
• Monday.com (MNDY) reports premarket with 1,084,301 stock volume and 6,781 call volume. The expected earnings move is $26.90 with an estimated EPS of $0.01.
• Home Depot (HD) also reports premarket with 2,314,771 stock volume and 12,170 call volume. The expected earnings move is $17.43 with an estimated EPS of $4.55.
• Hut 8 Mining (HUT) reports premarket with 2,853,281 stock volume and 2,934 call volume. The expected earnings move is $1.34 with an estimated EPS of -$0.09.
• On Holding AG (ONON) reports premarket with 5,314,996 stock volume and 9,938 call volume. The expected earnings move is $3.93 with an estimated EPS of $0.14.
• Cipher Mining (CIFR) reports premarket with 5,244,583 stock volume and 6,032 call volume. The expected earnings move is $0.57 with an estimated EPS of -$0.05.
• Mind Medicine (MNMD) reports premarket with 2,348,168 stock volume and 2,834 call volume. The expected earnings move is $0.77 with an estimated EPS of -$0.30.

August 14, 2024:

• Cisco Systems (CSCO) reports postmarket with 21,217,594 stock volume and 30,772 call volume. The expected earnings move is $2.55 with an estimated EPS of $0.70.
• B R Riley Financial (RILY) reporting time is unknown with 947,950 stock volume and 10,416 call volume.
• DLocal (DLO) reports postmarket with 3,462,771 stock volume and 11,542 call volume. The expected earnings move is $1.15 with an estimated EPS of $0.09.
• StoneCo (STNE) reports postmarket with 6,384,887 stock volume and 3,506 call volume. The expected earnings move is $0.96 with an estimated EPS of $0.34.
• UBS Group AG (UBS) reports premarket with 1,211,728 stock volume and 760 call volume. The expected earnings move is $1.47 with an estimated EPS of $0.12.
• Canoo (GOEV) reports postmarket with 1,410,526 stock volume and 633 call volume. The expected earnings move is $0.36 with an estimated EPS of -$0.77.
• 3D Systems (DDD) reporting time is unknown with 4,939,588 stock volume and 927 call volume. The expected earnings move is $0.57 with an estimated EPS of -$0.05.
• Cardinal Health (CAH) reports premarket with 1,179,690 stock volume and 477 call volume. The expected earnings move is $4.91 with an estimated EPS of $1.72.
• Brinker International (EAT) reports premarket with 1,772,879 stock volume and 3,297 call volume. The expected earnings move is $5.63 with an estimated EPS of $1.65.
• RCI Hospitality Holdings (RICK) reporting time is unknown with 370,072 stock volume and 819 call volume. The expected earnings move is $2.36 with an estimated EPS of $0.88.

August 15, 2024:

• Walmart (WMT) will report premarket with 13,805,384 stock volume and 28,635 call volume. The expected earnings move is $3.03 with an estimated EPS of $0.65.
• JD.COM (JD) also reports premarket with 4,326,597 stock volume and 34,261 call volume. The expected earnings move is $1.63 with an estimated EPS of $0.79.
• Alibaba (BABA) reports postmarket with 7,755,710 stock volume and 73,231 call volume. The expected earnings move is $3.91 with an estimated EPS of $1.87.
• Applied Materials (AMAT) reports postmarket with 5,050,743 stock volume and 10,440 call volume. The expected earnings move is $11.71 with an estimated EPS of $2.01.
• Grab Holdings (GRAB) reports premarket with 13,196,683 stock volume and 2,347 call volume. The expected earnings move is $0.27 with an estimated EPS of -$0.01.
• Golar LNG (GLNG) reports premarket with 864,153 stock volume and 1,336 call volume. The expected earnings move is $3.10 with an estimated EPS of $0.44.
• Deere & Company (DE) reports premarket with 1,335,065 stock volume and 5,231 call volume. The expected earnings move is $17.55 with an estimated EPS of $5.80.
• Tapestry (TPR) reports premarket with 3,299,403 stock volume and 2,868 call volume. The expected earnings move is $2.64 with an estimated EPS of $0.88.
• Coherent (COHR) reports postmarket with 2,458,167 stock volume and 892 call volume. The expected earnings move is $7.39 with an estimated EPS of $0.46.
• Nice (NICE) reports premarket with 1,378,596 stock volume and 3,526 call volume. The expected earnings move is $15.45 with an estimated EPS of $2.05.
• Childrens Place (PLCE) reporting time is unknown with 199,380 stock volume and 1,932 call volume. The expected earnings move is $0.85.
• Sigma Lithium (SGML) reports postmarket with 1,092,579 stock volume and 1,079 call volume. The expected earnings move is $0.79 with an estimated EPS of $0.13.
• Aldeyra Therapeutics (ALDX) reporting time is unknown with 2,332,668 stock volume and 1,060 call volume. The expected earnings move is $0.51 with an estimated EPS of -$0.14.
• Immatics NV (IMTX) reporting time is unknown with 137,347 stock volume and 6 call volume. The expected earnings move is $1.32 with an estimated EPS of -$0.35.
• Cellebrite DI (CLBT) reports premarket with 1,211,315 stock volume and 39 call volume. The expected earnings move is $1.45 with an estimated EPS of $0.08.
• FSD Pharma (HUGE) reporting time is unknown with 1,152,808,059 stock volume and 6,701 call volume. The expected earnings move is $0.75 with an estimated EPS of -$0.06.
• (Unusual Whales)